Sevenoaks is Kent's c-suite capital: Findings from Census 2021
The good, the bad, and the ugly of Census 2021 for Kent
IN-DEPTH
Findings from the latest UK Census reveal a rapidly changing workforce across the county. The consequences could shake-up Kent’s economy for decades to come.
Analysis of the latest Census data for Kent and Medway in 2021 has revealed a rapidly changing workforce across the county. Demographic changes across Kent’s communities are now redefining the operating system for many local businesses and could lead to an economic shake-up in the decades to come.
Population changes redefine the county
Whilst taken during the Covid period, Census 2021 shows how the composition of Kent’s population is changing fast. There was a 22% increase in the number of adults 65 years old or over in the county from 2011 to 2022. A fifth of Kent’s population is now 65+, increasing by 13% as a percentage of the total population from the previous Census.
The working age population of Kent has stalled. Whilst in absolute terms the number of those aged between 19 and 65 increased by 45 thousand, this is a worrying 2% decline from 2011 when comparing the age group a percentage ofthe total population. A recent annual population survey also showed that the number of economically active people aged 16- 64 in Kent has fallen from 774,100 (81.8%) in December 2020 to 737,800 (78.0%) in December 2021.
Kent’s population increased by 7.7% between 2011 and 2021, and now stands at 1.57m. In Medway, the population grew by nearly 16 thousand (6%) to 279,800. The county’s population growth was largely driven by an ageing population as average life expectancies have risen sharply in recent years.
Dartford has the youngest median age across the county at 37 and scores top for economic activity - 68.2% of those aged 16 plus are in work. In contrast, Folkestone and Hythe has a median age of 47, and 1 in 4 are over the age of 65. This has led to the local authority having one of the highest concentrations of care professionals in Kent.
Kent’s workforce adapts
When analysing the county’s workforce, Sevenoaks comes out on top for the number of managers, directors, and senior officials. 1 in 5 of Sevenoaks’ working population (18.9%) fall into this category, highlighting the sustained affluence of the area. Yet, Sevenoaks is held back by a high level of economic inactivity among adults (39.2%) - it is the top local authority for economic inactivity in West Kent.
In 2021, Maidstone was the most populous local authority within Kent at 175,800. Maidstone also experienced the highest increase in absolute terms with the population rising by 20,600 between 2011 and 2021. This is the largest increase in absolute terms of all twelve local authorities in Kent and equates to a 13.3% increase during the 10-year period. Dartford grew by 20% during the 10-year period which is the highest population increase in the South East recorded by Census 2021.
Maidstone’s population growth has been buoyed by cheaper housing stock than the rest of the county and good links to London which is driving those priced out of the capital to move to area. 16% of Kent’s new builds during 2010-2020 occurred in Maidstone local authority as home builders have tried to keep up with demand. The local authority’s population is now bigger than Reading, Oxford, and Cambridge.
Canterbury topped the list for economic inactivity in Kent with 46% of the adult population not working. This reflects the local area’s high concentration of students attending the University of Kent. Tunbridge Wells grew in population by only 0.3% - the worst performing council in Kent for population growth.
A skills shortage to come?
Worryingly for policymakers, a skills shortage could hold back Kent’s economy for years to come unless the issue is addressed. In comparison to the other home counties, Kent is performing poorly for those with qualifications. In some local authorities, over a fifth of the adult population have no qualification at all.
Whilst there is greater uptake for apprenticeships in Kent, those with level 4 qualifications and above is distributed unevenly across the county. 41% of of people aged 16 years and over in Tunbridge Wells have level 4 qualifications and above as their highest level of qualification. This is 73% higher than the county’s worst performing local authority Swale.
In 2021, Kent had a lower proportion of people with NVQ4 and above than the national average. The county is also seeing more people leaving the skilled trade professions and at a faster rate than the national average. Swale came in first place for those working in skilled trades with 12.4% of those in employment working as a tradesman.
The shake-up visible around us
For many, Census 2021 won’t feel new. Kent remains a tale of two realities: a thriving commuter belt versus barely surviving coastal towns. However, the county as a whole is going through a fast paced demographic change that is set to define Kent for decades to come. The future tests for council planners are clear. Just take Ashford which had an astonishing increase of over 30% in those aged 65+ since the last Census - what pressures will an ageing population have on local resource, and how can we prepare?
Ultimately, local policymakers and businesses are now dealing with a more inactive, and increasingly ageing population. This isn’t declinist. This is the reality for a changing county. Future decisions at a local and national level will decide whether Kent swims, floats, trends water, or drowns.
The other reality is that certain parts of the county are flourishing. Dartford is growing quickly and so is Maidstone as it is buoyed by the Capital’s overspill. These areas are now receiving the lion’s share of the county’s new builds and investment in better services. Bigger towns and cities in the Kent are the key to growth but whether that enables county-wide levelling up is to be seen.
So the question is: what action is required to get Kent’s economy fighting fit for the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow? Now is the right time for Kent to consider what levers it can pull to deliver growth for all, without needing to get the Whitehall begging bowl out once more.
KENT BUSINESS NEWS IN BRIEF
Folkestone’s Saga plc announced it was on track for an underlying pretax profit of £20-£30 million in the financial year ending on January 31. The company published a trading update revealing it was projected to be back in the black, compared to a loss of GBP6.7 million the year before. Saga expects revenue in financial year 2023 to be 40% to 50% higher than the £377.2 million in 2022. The company’s share price is up 35% YTD as of close of trading on Friday 27th January 2023.
Kent to the Canary Islands via plane could become a reality by the end of the decade, according to airport bosses. This follows a recent decision to dismiss a legal challenge against the proposed reopening of Manston Airport which could open as early as 2023. One million passengers could travel through the Manston Airport terminal each year if low-cost airlines decide to get behind the project. A public consultation is expected to be held soon before construction work begins.
Three NatWest banking branches are set to close in Kent as more retail banks walk away from the county’s high streets. NatWest branches in Maidstone, in Sheerness and on Cranbrook High Street are among the latest list of 23 closures across England and Wales announced. This follows news last week that Lloyds is set to leave Gillingham high street in the second quarter of this year.
FINAL THOUGHTS
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